Bitcoin (BTC) fell to daily lows on Aug. 26 as market nerves heightened into new macro triggers.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Pre-Fed blues hit BTC markets
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $21,332 on Bitstamp ahead of fresh commentary from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve.
Part of the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual symposium, Powell was set to deliver a speech on the day that spectators hoped would provide new cues on economic policy going forward.
With U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowing since June, interest remained high over the extent of key interest rate hikes in September.
Summarizing the current economic situation in the U.S., macro analyst David Hunter argued that the Fed would have no choice but to change course before the end of the year.
“Many signs we’re in recession w/economy continuing to decelerate,” he told Twitter followers this week.
“Composite PMIs at 45,housing rolling over fast,retail is weak,labor conditions are deteriorating.Overseas is even worse.And inflation is rolling over & likely will surprise on the downside.Fed will pause this fall.”
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, a majority still favored a repeat of July’s 75-basis-point raise.
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group
Trading range endures
Bitcoin circles meanwhile kept an eye on potential volatility going into this year’s Jackson Hole.
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“We often see an increase in volatility just before FED announcements, but that may be limited if some of the near range liquidity doesn’t get cleared out,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators wrote in part of comments on the day.
An accompanying chart showed buy and sell levels on the Binance order book, these strengthening closer to spot at the time of writing, reducing the potential for a breakout.
BTC/USD buy and sell levels chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter
Continuing, Keith Alan, nonetheless predicted that an end to the sideways price action (PA) of recent days would have to enter.
“PA will be forced to make a directional move out of the micro-structure very soon,” he explained.
“Normally I would be eager to scalp the volatility that usually front runs a JPow conference, but the R:R ratio in the active range sucks. Might consider scalping a breakout above the 50 MA.”
On the topic of price targets, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe flagged $21,000 as a key level to hold in the event of additional downside.
Retesting $21,800, on the other hand, could result in a breakout above $23,000.
#Bitcoin is boring, as we anticipate reactions based on tomorrow’s news (PCE numbers and Powell’s speech).
Overall, on a support block now and;
– Tomorrow can result in fake-outs.
– Testing $21.8K will likely result in acceleration to $23.2K.
– Crucial to stay above $21K. pic.twitter.com/LYNRnHpnkh
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 25, 2022
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