Bitcoin (BTC) has sealed its worst August performance since 2015 after the monthly candle closed down 13.9%.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Weekly candle “doesn’t look good”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that BTC/USD finished the month at $19,990.
A knock to bulls’ efforts to stabilize spot price, the August close was only the second monthly candle finish below the $20,000 mark (depending on the exchange used) since late 2020.
BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
While preserving June’s close as the macro low on the monthly chart, the performance led traders into firmly bearish territory. Among them was Crypto Tony, who warned that the stage was set for deeper losses going forward.
His outlook, he told Twitter followers on the day, saw him “leaning towards a macro drop down.”
This is my macro go to on #Bitcoin currently and until we see
– A change in market behaviour and becoming macro bullish (Taking out $30,000 and putting in a higher high)
I am leaning towards a macro drop down, which i where i will be looking to ladder into #Altcoins for swings https://t.co/qz7RAgw4gH
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) September 1, 2022
Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, added that the first weekly candle of September is already shaping up to take Bitcoin further into the red.
“The weekly candle for Bitcoin doesn’t look good, though it’s still very early in the week,” he warned alongside an explanatory chart.
“The long top wick and selloff is objectively a bad sign, if it closes this way. Particularly if it turns into a red candle. Something to watch for the rest of the week.”
Others saw more optimistic implications in the monthly close.
Popular Twitter account Dave the wave highlighted moving average convergence/ divergence (MACD) as having predicted the comedown from local highs above $25,000 and now conversely favoring relief for bulls.
On the basis of this indicator, a further correction was also predicted [at a time when uber-bullishness dominated on CT].https://t.co/Y6ONHetp80
— dave the wave (@davthewave) September 1, 2022
Fellow trader Johal Miles reiterated the potentially bullish knock-on effect of an MACD cross from mid-August, one which nonetheless had seen “no continuation yet.”
BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: TradingView
New “historical lows” for hodl metric
One on-chain indicator in particular meanwhile reinforced the feeling that current BTC price levels are for accumulating, not selling.
Related: BTC price top warnings emerge as 10K BTC leaves wallet after 9 years
Bitcoin’s Realized Value Hodl (RHODL) ratio, which measures the relative value of coins moving in recent weeks compared to one or two years prior, now sits at its lowest ever.
The dubious achievement was noticed by Philip Swift, creator of on-chain data resource LookIntoBitcoin.
“RHODL Ratio is now at historical lows. Indicating near-term prices paid for $BTC are relatively low to those paid 1-2yrs ago,” he explained.
“Useful way of identifying sentiment via actual behavior. Shows market is v.bearish bitcoin right now. Accumulate.”
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